Beyond the AI Capex Frenzy

No one wants to be at the mercy of the markets when they appear unpredictable. But were markets ever truly predictable? Especially in phases of heightened uncertainty, a measured approach and a well-thought-out strategy prove their worth. The rapid advance of artificial intelligence confronts us with far-reaching transformations that will permanently reshape economic and technological structures. This makes the key question all the more pressing: do we react in panic and attempt abrupt course changes, or do we make necessary adjustments with a steady hand?

Searching for Orientation in Uncertain Times.

Many investors are currently asking themselves what they can still rely on. Some turn to Bitcoin in the hope of gaining independence from central banks and institutions. Yet an instrument whose price can halve within a matter of months is hardly suitable as a store of value. Others look to gold. Those who have held gold for decades as an insurance policy may now be pleased with its higher value, but they rarely sell. Those buying today, by contrast, are often hoping for short-term gains and are unwilling to hold the position for an indefinite period.

Change is also clearly visible within equity markets. Major technology companies have recently announced investment programs that exceed even elevated expectations: Alphabet plans around 180 billion US dollars, Amazon roughly 200 billion US dollars in capital expenditures. A US senator once captured this aptly: “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.” Today, it would probably have to read: “100 billion here, 100 billion there.”

One thing is clear: artificial intelligence will fundamentally reshape our world. For technology companies, investing is a matter of survival. At the same time, it is unlikely that all participants will emerge as winners. This is precisely where one of the central challenges for investors lies.

Geopolitical tensions further amplify uncertainty. But were times ever truly different? Anyone who remembers the fears of the Cold War knows that uncertainty is a constant of the markets.

Equal Weighting Instead of Concentration Risk.

Our response is a disciplined, broadly diversified approach. At the core of the Gutmann equity strategy is an equal-weighting of holdings. This structure avoids concentration risk and ensures balance; especially at a time when passive index ETFs are increasingly dominated by a small number of heavyweight positions.

A balanced allocation across themes, combined with consistent position adjustments, allows us to incorporate new insights gradually into portfolios. Anyone passively holding an index ETF is currently reminded that investing is never truly passive. Every investment is an active decision, including the decision to concentrate a large share of assets in a few, thematically driven stocks.

The Gutmann equity strategy is deliberately built on several pillars. Away from the headline noise, our dividend stocks provide stability. Japanese equities continue to move to their own rhythm. After the strong rally in January, we reduced our Japan allocation back to its target level and realized part of the gains.

A Long-Term Approach Instead of Actionism.

We continuously implement measures that may barely be noticeable in the short term but make a meaningful difference over time. Why would we constantly jerk the steering wheel in hectic intervals? That neither improves performance nor builds trust.

One point we want to state clearly: we were not satisfied with the absolute performance in 2025, and questions of optimal positioning occupy us every day. We will not catch every wave at exactly the right moment. In 2025, every US dollar proved to be a headwind, as the US currency depreciated by more than 10% against the euro. In a globally oriented approach, concentrating on European equities is not a solution. Currency movements matter in individual years, but over longer periods they are not the decisive factor.

Interestingly, an investment in a global index would not have delivered a materially better outcome either. The biggest difference was whether gold was part of the portfolio or not.

From our perspective, a globally oriented strategy remains the best way to achieve long-term objectives: broadly diversified across themes, regions, currency areas, and instruments. There will always be segments that stand out in any given year. Which ones those are, however, only becomes clear in hindsight.