Lost in a Sea of News

Never before have we been so well informed about a war. And never before have we understood so little. During the Korean, Afghanistan, and Vietnam wars, there was a limited number of established media outlets reporting on the situation. Today, the debate often starts with a more basic question: which sources are even credible? Distrust is widespread and not without reason.

Into this demand for information pours a constant flood of updates, headlines, and “breaking news” across countless platforms. We can choose what we want to read and hear. From “the U.S. has never dominated a war like this before” to “Iran holds all the cards.”

It does not help that political leaders pound their chests and issue, at times, remarkably erratic statements on social media.

What are we supposed to expect?

Should one meaningfully change asset allocation based on anticipated developments? And what exactly is being “anticipated”? When in doubt, fear tends to shape expectations and it often leads to panic selling at precisely the wrong moment.

My view is to treat financial markets as the primary indicator. Despite the dramatic headlines, markets have not collapsed. There is never a shortage of warning voices. If the situation deteriorates, those same voices will be quick to remind us, finger raised, that they “knew it all along.”

What happens next?

The future remains uncertain for all of us. This week in Europe, we woke up to news of a ceasefire that pushed equity markets higher and sent oil prices lower. Anyone who sold stocks in a moment of panic is now left asking: what now?

There is no easy answer. I would not advocate rushing back in. Tomorrow, a single missile, or even a fast boat in the Strait of Hormuz, could shatter the calm again. And then what?

What matters far more is having a clear, well-thought-out investment strategy and sticking to it.

That is exactly what we stand for.