Speculative Fever

“It’s only a bubble if you’re not participating.” I read that line recently, and it has been stuck in my head ever since. Not because it’s right in every respect, but because it can’t be dismissed outright. Those who are invested and enjoying daily mark-to-market gains can always find endless arguments for why prices are rising. And why they are bound to keep rising.

The themes of the day

Lately, I keep encountering statements like these, delivered with great conviction: gold and silver are only at the beginning of their rally; AI stocks are far more reasonably valued than internet stocks were in the late 1990s; the US dollar can only weaken because President Trump wants it that way; defense stocks have to rise because Europe must rapidly make up for decades of underinvestment. And Bitcoin… well, Bitcoin is hardly being talked about at all at the moment.

That’s how themes of the day work. They arrive with force and disappear from the spotlight just as quickly. Yesterday it was Bitcoin, today it’s gold. Or have we already moved on to silver?

Between fascination and strategy

There will always be something that performs so spectacularly that it captures our imagination – and at the same time unsettles us completely. Am I missing out? Everyone is talking about it. Shouldn’t I be buying as well?

No one knows the future. Prices can move anywhere in the short term, up or down. So how can a sensible strategy be derived from that?

Those who have held gold in a safe for decades are pleased with its higher value. That doesn’t mean gold also needs to be added to the portfolio, because for them it is a physical comfort position that won’t be sold even at higher prices. Those who, by contrast, overexpose themselves now to “hot” themes such as precious metals or defense stocks risk burning their fingers.

Especially in overheated phases – the so-called blow-off phase – the danger of price losses is particularly high. No forecast offers protection against that. A globally diversified investment strategy does.

And where to find one, you already know.